Looking at the Numbers

     Today, Toronto FC take on DC United at BMO Field, in what is sure to be the make-or-break game of the season. Three points were a must against Chicago, and only one point was taken home by Toronto. What does this mean for DC United? Well, it means you have a desperate Toronto FC side looking for points wherever possible, and, unfortunately for DC United, who have been in poor form throughout the year, that means the trip up north becomes a very difficult one.

     Toronto FC is a strong home side, so three points against DC United isn’t impossible to imagine. A strong showing by the group along with the possible return of both Maicon Santos and Miguel Mista mean that Toronto FC go in with some kind of advantage. However, DC United cannot be taken lightly either, as we saw what happened last year when Toronto FC played the last place New York Red Bulls. Today’s job is simple; get those three points and put yourselves back into the mix, which is what Preki will be telling the team in the dressing room.

     Looking at the numbers, three points is not a give or take here. We need those points. If Toronto can muster up four wins and a couple draws, we’ll have a good chance of making playoffs, assuming other results go our way. With only seven games left, Toronto need to win both the home and away legs against DC United and take those six points. That would put Toronto’s overall point total at 34. Not good enough just yet. Take a look at the standings and you see that both San Jose Earthquakes and Chicago Fire have two games in hand. Those results need to go our way. Realistically, Toronto should try to beat the Seattle Sounders, who have one more game and 33 points. The five point gap can be closed in two games.

     There’s still a good chance that Toronto FC can make playoffs this season. A couple of scenarios should be considered. If Toronto wins 5 games, they make it no matter what the other 2 games produce. If Toronto wins 4 games, it would take a further 2 draws. If Toronto wins only 3 games, the other 4 need to be draws, and even then we’re at 67%. So, what number should Toronto FC fans dream about as they go to sleep in their downtown condos? 42. 42 points will give Toronto FC an almost 80% chance of making playoffs. 43 means Toronto has a 90% chance, and 44%+ means we’re in.

      Well, looking at the remaining schedule, Toronto FC need to beat DC United at home and away. That’s 6 more points; bring the total to 34, like I said before. Now, a draw against Houston away is probably the most realistic result, so let’s make it 35. San Jose Earthquakes at BMO Field is a winnable game, so we have 38. Sounders away will probably result in a draw or a loss. Assuming a loss, Toronto need to beat Chivas away, bring us to 41. So, really, the big game is Toronto FC vs. Columbus Crew at BMO Field. Exciting isn’t it? If, IF, Toronto can beat the crew, we’re at 44 points, and if we draw, we’re at magic number 42. The Crew game, if everything prior to that day, has gone according to the plan, is the most crucial game. So, my friends, come the time where piss yellow shirts invade BMO Field, Toronto FC needs to stand strong and kick ass, and maybe, just maybe, we’ll see some playoff football in Toronto this year!

Thanks to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS/East/TorontoFC.html for the stats!

Learning from Maicon Santos

     Yesterday’s game against Chicago showed Toronto FC fans something they’d already seen; poor away form and an inability to put the ball into the back of the net. Another 3 points lost means Toronto FC’s playoffs chances just went from bad to worse. Sure, Toronto FC had numerous opportunities. And, some may argue that, had some questionable calls gone our way, Toronto could have won the game. Certainly Chicago didn’t look that much better. Freddie Ljungburg’s catastrophic miss is testament to that. As the points available dwindle and the pressure mounts, one thing becomes very obvious; Toronto FC don’t have balls. They simply don’t have the balls to go out and win games.
 
     A better team would have beaten Toronto yesterday, laid the game to rest and punished TFC for some piss-poor defending, rough tackling, and general inability to go forward. Toronto did control possession for large spells of time, and even strung a few passes together. However, it was the lack of balls that did it in for Toronto FC. TFC just looks scared when they attack. It’s the sad reality of the team. Defensively, the boys throw themselves all over the field, defend in large numbers, and tackle effectively. This is Preki’s real contribution to the team. No doubt last year’s defense would have crumbled under some of Chicago’s pressure. That’s beyond the point. There is no recklessness being exhibited here. There is no charging at the defence of the opposing tackles, being courageous and direct. As a team, Toronto FC shows no gusto, no attacking spirit. What you do is find yourself some balls and attack. What’s the worst that’s going to happen? You lose the ball? Big deal, you’ll get it back.
 
     De Rosario is the only player on the team who does this. Maybe it’s just because he has the skill to. But De Rosario charges at the defence, and tries to get past him. Now imagine if Nick LaBrocca, O’Brian White, and Jacob Peterson did this too. It’s almost Brazilian without the samba; pass it around, try things out, when it doesn’t work, pass back, try again, and just try to find that one killer pass. It’s a strategy that works...if you’re Brazil! If you’re not the Samba kings, what do you do? You use your wings, attack the fullbacks, and score some goals! I’m glad I mentioned Brazil anyways, because, I had almost lost all hope for the offense of this team until one Maicon Santos came on.
  
     Maicon Santos is what the other players on this team need to become, or at least try to become. Peterson gets the ball in a good, offensive position. He takes a few steps back, gives up, passes to Gargan. On the other hand, Maicon gets the ball in a good, offensive position. He takes a look, runs towards the defender and takes him head on, in the most unbrazilian way possible. It’s ironic, but if it works, it works. The other players, specifically, those in the midfield, need to watch Maicon and learn. When you have the balls to run at your man, the defense is put under more pressure than when they learn you’re just going to pass it back when it gets a little tight.
    
     Yesterday showed just how much Toronto FC has missed Maicon Santos, as well as Chad Barrett. A speedy recover to him will help Toronto’s offense immensely. Until then, Toronto need to step it up and learn that attacking football can’t just happen with backpasses and wasted chances. It needs to be created. It’s those “juevos” which will make Toronto FC an offensive threat. A couple of wingers wouldn’t hurt though, Mo.

The Pursuit of the Playoff Dream.

     When Toronto FC takes the field today at Chicago’s Toyota Park, all bets need to be off. Sure, Toronto has only won 7 games away in 4 seasons. Sure, Toronto hasn’t won a league match in the past month. Sure, Canadian internationals Dwayne De Rosario and Julian de Guzman, as well as rookie defender Nana Attakora, ditched Toronto FC to play in a meaningless friendly against a Peru B side (which Canada ended up losing.) These are just words at this point. Toronto needs to take the field today, with “Fire! Fire! Fire, Fire, Fire!” and other easy school sport chants ringing in the background, and beat Chicago. That’s it. No ifs, ands, or buts, a loss means playoffs is nothing more than a wild dream. Even with a win, Toronto isn’t back in it, being 2 points (possibly 5, even 8) behind San Jose Earthquakes, who have a game in hand. A win against Chicago will certainly help though, by also ensuring Chicago’s L column goes up while Toronto’s W does the same. Really, that’s all that matters.

      De Rosario’s decision to play in the Canada game speaks more about the situation with Toronto FC then anything he actually says. Why would a veteran player take the field in a non-World Cup qualifier. I’ve always maintained that De Rosario is the best move we’ve ever made as a franchise. I am a star-struck fan of his, I’ll admit. But, this decision shows De Rosario’s real motives, which, unfortunately, may not be 100% Toronto FC. But, I may just be seeing things.

      Regardless of the Canada game (Good work, by the way, to team Canada who beat Honduras 2-1) Toronto FC, the storyline tonight will be a simple one; two strong teams fighting for a playoff position which neither may end up getting. It’s crunch time for sure now. Nery Castillo vs. Julian de Guzman. Freddie Ljunburg vs. Miguel Mista, it’s going to be a tough game for sure. Toronto needs to go in with a winning mentality. Too often we see Toronto FC start away games defensively, and just trying not to get scored on, which, ultimately, ends up happening anyways. 0-0 isn’t going to cut it. Some may say that Toronto’s 4-1 thrashing earlier this season is sign for optimism, but Chicago is an entirely different beast now then during the home leg. New players and a stronger overall style of play have given rise to a new kind of Fire. Toronto’s job will be to extinguish this fire and take those 3 golden points.

       Away form has been an issue for as long as I can remember. Today, Toronto FC must fight the Fire with our own brand of red flame. If not, we may see Toronto limp their way to a 10th place finish, with calls for the ol’ revolving door to start spinning again. The mentality that we are away and therefore are expected to lose needs to go. If not, I fear Toronto FC’s season may end today.

     What do you think? Think Toronto FC has what it takes to win? Or will the curse of away games strike again? Leave a comment with your prediction. As for me, I think Toronto FC may just come out with a 1-0 win today.

Unleashing the Gargan!

     On March 25th, 2010, Marvell Wynne, a first year Toronto FC player and fan favourite right back, was traded to Colorado Rapids in exchange for Nick LaBrocca. A typical Preki move, as Toronto FC fans would soon find out; hard work outweighing flashiness or pure talent. Wynne wasn’t the most soccer savvy defender in Toronto’s history, but few would have thought that his departure would pave the way for a new franchise face. Dan Gargan, signed two days later from USL side Puerto Rico Islanders, exemplified everything that Toronto FC seemingly lacked last season; Disciplined, hard working, rough tackling bit players who would fit into a system rather than shine individually. It is this system that Dan Gargan punished Toronto FC with in CONCACAF Champions League play in the 2009 season. Parking the bus in front of the Puerto Rico net, the USL side’s defense taught Toronto a lesson in international competition. Gargan’s signing was supposed to be an afterthought; just another face to bolster the squad.

     Yet, now, Toronto FC’s long throwing, quick marking right back has become a fan favourite. Chants of “Release the Gargan!” a reference to the film “Clash of the Titans” is gaining ground in the south stand. Dan Gargan symbolizes the Preki revolution which swept Toronto early on and is now being met with scorns and calls for heads, so typical of Toronto sports fans yet truly backed by solid, undeniable facts. That Dan Gargan was released by Colorado and was found in a USL side, which Toronto faced, shows upper management’s real ability to find players, or lack thereof. Pablo Vitti was found in the same manner. It’s not overly important where talent comes in from, but it certainly has its own story to tell as well. All the signs pointed for Dan Gargan to be a depth player at best, to be called on when the shiny new right back, who was supposed to be brought in soon by Mo Johnston, was unavailable. Yet that never came to fruition, just like most of Mo’s promised players. But that is another story for another day. It is Dan Gargan’s quick rise in stock, his typical journeyman adventure, which shows his true quality, and why Toronto FC fans, myself included, hold him to high regard.

     Dan Gargan is no Dwayne De Rosario. He doesn’t score goals, doesn’t carry the team on his shoulders, doesn’t have those blistering, “Marvell”-ous runs which made Wynne so popular, and, as a personality, isn’t over the top or Antonio Cassano-like either. He is very ordinary. It is this normality which makes him relatable. Let’s be realistic, at one point, Toronto FC seemed like the Justice League; You had Marvell Wynne as the speedy Flash, Amado Guevara as the moody, often silent but deadly Batman, and even Adrian Serioux as the resident Superman, who, ironically, ended his career here due to “Neck Injury.” Sounds too much like Superman’s “accident” if you know what I mean. But wait, there’s two others in the justice league, you say? Well, Wonder Women is probably the Scott’s girl...and let’s be realistic, no one cares for the Green Lantern anyways.

     What Dan Gargan is, is the idea of the real hero; the cop who takes down the bad guy, the fireman who rescues cats from trees, the mailman who delivers your season ticket package, the real guy! His normality, his ability to just get the job done, efficiently, consistently, with no fuss and no showing off, is a testament to Preki’s system. He's not the first Toronto athlete to win fans over with a nose to grind, all heart no talent approach. Just looking at the Leafs love of Darcy Tucker shows you don't have to score goals to win fans. By the same token, it’s not about winning the ball back by running like Usain Bolt and catching the attacker, it’s about preventing the attacker from even getting past you in the first place! Meeting Super Heroes in real life would probably end up disappointing us anyways, but Dan Gargan, the regular guy, the hard worker and efficient team player, never disappoints. The famous Galacticos Madrid line “Zidanes y Pavones” showed that, in order to be great, talents like Zidane must work with a strong base of hard working players, the "Pavones". Perhaps Preki doesn't see this. A team of Pavones is not going to work just like a team of Zidanes won't. You need that balance. Preki's approach is a step in the right direction but can easily become two steps backwards as well. However, Toronto FC has chased the Zidanes for too long. I say, bring on the Pavones!